8、The dollar
Further to fall
Dec 29th 2004 From The Economist print edition
A new year is likely to bring a new low for the dollar
THE dollar ended the year as it began: heading downhill. It hit a new low against the euro, below $1.36, on December 28th. Against the yen, it was steadier: ￥103, slightly stronger than in late November. The yen has risen by less than the euro because, although the Bank of Japan has not intervened in the foreign-exchange markets since March, the bank looks more likely to act than the European Central Bank. Japan’s finance minister, Sadakazu Tanigaki, gave warning this week that his country’s authorities would monitor foreign-exchange markets over the New Year holiday. In contrast, Gerrit Zalm, the Dutch finance minister, suggested that the euro’s rise so far was acceptable.
Since early 2002 the dollar has lost 37% against the euro and 24% against the yen. But it has shed only 16% against the Federal Reserve’s broad basket of currencies, because many Asian currencies are pegged or closely tied to the greenback.
The cause of the dollar’s decline is hardly a mystery: private investors are less eager to finance America’s huge current-account deficit. The deficit widened slightly in the third quarter of 2004, to a record $165 billion, or 5.6% of GDP. If the deficit remains so big, America’s foreign debt burden and hence its debt-service payments will increase sharply.
So far, America’s mounting foreign liabilities have not harmed its economy because the rise in its debt in recent years has been offset by lower interest rates. As a result, America still enjoys a net inflow of foreign investment income despite being the world’s biggest debtor. But, as interest rates rise, refinancing America’s debt will become more costly. Goldman Sachs forecasts that net foreign investment income is likely to shift to a sizeable deficit during 2005, growing thereafter. The investment bank estimates that, if America’s current-account deficit remains steady as a share of GDP and interest rates average 5% in future, net foreign debt-service payments will reach 4% of GDP by 2020—a significant drag on American living standards.
By most measures the dollar is already undervalued, but experience suggests that it will need to fall further still to cut the deficit to a sustainable level, say 2-3% of GDP. Capital Economics, a London research firm, forecasts that the dollar will fall to $1.40 against the euro and to ￥90 by the end of 2005. But it expects the dollar to recover against the British pound to $1.82 from $1.93 today, as British interest rates are cut in the wake of falling house prices.
8、今年，美元的终结恰如其开局：就是每况愈下。12月28日，美元对欧元又创新低，超过€1：$1.36。对日元还相对稳定一些：$1：￥103，比11月末又涨了点儿。日元比欧元升值要少，这是因为：尽管日本央行从三月起就未介入外汇市场，但看起来却一直比欧洲央行更有可能采取行动。日本财务大臣谷垣祯一本周发出警示，称日本官方将在新年假期对外汇市场采取措施。相反，荷兰财长扎尔姆则暗示欧元迄今为止的涨幅还是可以接受的。
从2002年年初，美元相对欧元下跌了37%，相对日元下跌24%。不过相对于美联储一揽子主要货币则仅下跌了16%，因为很多亚洲货币紧钉美元或和美元密切挂钩。
造成美元低迷的原因几乎没什么神秘的：私人投资者不再愿意为美国的巨额经常项目赤字买单。2004年第三季度，这一赤字又渐扩大，达到了创纪录的1650亿美元，相当于GDP的5.6%。如果赤字保持这一高额，美国的外债及由此引发的债务偿还负担将会急剧加重。
截至目前，美国不断攀升的外债还没有影响其经济发展，这是由于近几年其债务的增长带来的影响已被较低的利率水平所弥补。结果是，美国尽管作为世界最大的债务国，却仍享受着外资投资收入的净流入。然而，随着利率的增长，借新债还旧债的成本会越来越高。高盛公司预测净外国投资收入在2005年可能会转化成相当大规模的赤字，而且此后还会不断增长。这家投资银行(高盛)估计，如果将来美国的经常项目赤字居高不下、占据GDP较大份额，并且利率平均达到5%，那么外债偿债净支付在2020年将达到GDP的4%–对美国人的生活水平将会产生巨大的影响。
从大多方面来说，美元已经是被低估了，然而经验表明为消化赤字美元仍需要继续下跌，才能使赤字达到一个可以接受的水平，比如GDP的2-3%。伦敦一家名为资本经济学的研究机构预测到2005年年底，美元会跌至€1：$1.40/ $1：￥90。不过该预测同时也认为，由于英国随着房价下跌而减息，美元兑英镑会从现在的?1：$1.93回升至?1：$1.82。
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