Background Information
美元持续走低，意味着美国经济存在缺陷，但是否就意味着地球上其他国家也将遭受劫难？答案是否定的。世界经济将从美元的逐步下滑中受益。这将有助于缓解全球流动资金失衡状况，并且通过将生产转移到美国可贸易领域，缓冲房地产泡沫破灭给美国经济带来的震荡。诚然，美元的下滑将影响欧洲及亚洲的出
口，但如果这些地区的央行现有的利率走低，进而促进内需—这也正是全球经济达到重新平衡所需要的局面—-那么这种影响将会被抵消。现今欧洲及亚洲的强势增长也将有助于防止美国经济的低迷蔓延至整个世界。
The Falling Dollar
THE dollar’s tumble this week was attended by predictable shrinks from the markets; but as it fell to a20-month low of $1.32 against the euro, the only real surprise was that it had not slipped sooner. Indeed, there are good reasons to expect its slide to continue, dragging it below the record low of $1.36 against the euro that it hit in December 2004.
The recent decline was triggered by nasty news about the American economy. New figures this week suggested that the housing market’s troubles are having a wider impact on the economy. Consumer confidence and durable-goods orders both fell more sharply than expected. In contrast,German business confidence has risen to a 15-year high. There are also mounting concerns that central banks in China and elsewhere, which have been piling up dollars assiduously for years, may start selling.
So, contrary to popular perceptions, America’s economy has not significantly outperformed Europe’s in recent years. Since 2000 its structural budget deficit (after adjusting for the impact of the economic cycle) has widened sharply, while American households’ saving rate has plunged, causing the current-account deficit to swell. Over the same period, the euro-area economies saw no fiscal stimulus and household saving barely budged.
Yet cyclical factors only partly explain why the dollar has been strong. At bottom, its attractiveness is based more on structural factors—or, more accurately, on an illusion about structural differences between the American and European economies.
The main reason for the dollar’s strength has been the widespread belief that the American economy vastly outperformed the world’s other rich country economies in recent years. But the figures do not support the hypothesis. Sure, America’s GDP growth has been faster than Europe’s, but that is mostly because its population has grown more quickly too. Official figures of productivity growth, which should in theory be an important factor driving currency movement, exaggerate America’s lead. If the two are measured on a comparable basis, productivity growth over the past decade has been almost the same in the euro area as it has in America. Even more important, the latest figures suggest that, whereas productivity growth is now slowing in America, it is accelerating in the euro zone.
America’s growth, thus, has been driven by consumer spending. That spending, supported by dwindling saving and increased borrowing, is clearly unsustainable; and the consequent economic and financial imbalances must inevitably unwind. As that happens, the country could face a prolonged period of slower growth.
As for Europe, the old continent is hobbled by inflexible product and labor markets. But that, paradoxically, is an advantage: it means the place has a lot of scope for improvement. Some European countries are beginning to contemplate (and, to a limited extent, undertake) economic reforms. If they push ahead, their growth could actually speed up over the coming years. Once investors spot this, they are likely to conclude that the euro is a better bet than the dollar.
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下跌的美元
本周，由于可预见的市场萎缩，美元继续保持下降的趋势。随着美元兑欧元下降到二十个月来的最低点（1.32美元兑1欧元），唯一可以算得上令人惊讶的事情是这种局面不会更快地下滑。的确，有充分的理由相信美元的下降趋势将继续下去，甚至打破2004年12月创造的1.36美元：1欧元的历史最低点。
近期关于美国经济的大量负面新闻触发了美元的持续贬值。这一周来的新数据显示，美国房市的问题对经济带来了更广泛的影响。消费者信心和耐用品订单量都比预期的下滑还要更严重。相比之下，德国商业信心创下了15年来的历史新高，同样也出现了越来越多的担忧，那就是中国或其它地方的央行几年来一努力囤积美元，而现在却开始抛售美元。
因此，和流行的观念恰恰相反，美国经济近几年的经济整体表现并不明显强于欧洲的同期表现。自2000年以来，美国的结构性财政赤字显著提高（对经济周期对财政状况的影响进行修正后）。同时，随着美国家庭储蓄率持续下降，使得美国的流动资金赤字迅速增长。而在同一时期，欧元区的各经济体的财政状况良好，而家庭储蓄也基本保持不变。
但是，周期性因素只能片面地解释美元为什么一直强势。美元对投资者的吸引力根本上更多地基于经济结构要素—或者更准确地说，基于投资者对于美国和欧洲的经济结构差别所产生的一种错觉。
美元过去强势的主要原因是普遍存在的这种观点：近几年，相对世界其它富裕国家，美国经济的整体表现十分出众。但数据并不支持这一假设。的确，美国的国民生产总值增长速度要高于欧洲国家，但是这主要归功于美国快速增长的人口总量。生产力增长的官方数据，虽然在理论上是影响货币汇率走向的重要因素，但实际上却夸大了美国的领先地位。如果将欧美放在同一指标上进行比较，那么在过去十年里，欧美的经济表现基本上是一样的。更重要的是，最新的数据显示，当前美国的生产力增长正在放缓，而欧元区的生产力增长则在加速。
因此，美国的经济增长一直靠消费增长所拉动。而消费增长则是建立在储蓄下降和负债增多的基础上，很明显，这种形式的经济增长是无法持久的，而因此造成的经济以及财政的不平衡的后果也将不可避免的出现。随着这种消费主因的经济增长的消退，国家将可能面临长时间的经济增长放缓。就欧洲而言，这块年迈的大陆被缺乏弹性的产品和劳工市场拖得步履艰难。但是，虽然听起来有些荒谬，这种状况相对来说可能是一种优势：它意味着欧洲人有很大的空间去改善他们的经济状况。一些欧洲国家开始慎重考虑（并在小范
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